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The bond market may be engaging in wishful thinking

1 month ago   |   By

Yuri Gripas/Reuters
The 2- and 10-year Treasury yields rose to multi-year highs this week.
The yield curve is at risk of inverting - which has in the past been a key recession indicator.
But the Fed is moving slower than in the past, so it's possible the market could avoid inversion altogether.
The three-month Treasury yield closed at 1.81% on Friday. It has been at about this level since before the Fed's March 21 meeting, when it hiked its target range for the federal funds rate to 1.50%-1.75%. In other words, the three-month yield had been trading above the upper limit of the Fed's range...
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Treasury yields are surging - here's how high they might go

Treasury yields are surging - here's how high they might go

1 month ago   |   By

AP Images
US government bond yields are rising and will probably continue to do so.
While it's hard to know how high they will get, some other indicators offer hints.
Some areas related to Treasury yields include the federal funds rate, risk premiums and inflation expectations.
Ten-year Treasury yields have more than doubled since the 35-year low of 1.36% was reached in June 2016. Yet by historical standards yields are still low, remaining under 3%. With inflation rising, the Federal Reserve reducing its balance sheet, and rising budget deficits as far as the eye can see, there are plenty...
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